How Fast Do Users Upgrade to Eclipse 3.3?

A couple people have asked me for data on how fast people upgrade to a new version of Eclipse or specifically 3.3.   Unfortunately, ‘data’ is difficult to get on Eclipse and in general open source.   However, here is what I can find:

  • In the first two months after the Europa release we had 2.8 million downloads.   This does not equate to individual developers but I think it shows a lot of people have downloaded the new version.
  • We did an informal poll on EPIC, to see how fast people were planning to update.   it showed that 90%+ would upgrade within 6 months.
  • BZ Media does an annual survey of Eclipse usage in Nov/Dec. time frame.  Of those people that are using Eclipse, around 65% are using the latest version.

Based on this, I typically estimate that 50-65% of the Eclipse community has upgraded to the lastest version within 6 months of release.   I am interested if other people think this seems reasonable based on your experiences.